Monday, September 19, 2011

Market Reacting to Greece Fears or Just Reacting?

From one day to the next the stock market and the bond market seem to move because of concerns in Euroland and specifically Greece. In many cases Europe and Greece seem a very convenient excuse for traders to move in and out of positions on a whim, and the media without any better explanation, are happy to use them to explain moves in the market. The reality is that the markets are sensitive to almost everything that occurs around the world, both financially and politically. To think there is no connection with Europe and Greece would be naive. However, the likely reason for the volatility in the markets is just traders moving in and out of positions trying to lock in profits and not get caught on the wrong side of a trade. Fundamentals do not seem to be relevant or that important to the markets currently. And as markets and trades are increasingly computer model driven, it is advisable for small traders and investors to stay away. Trying to guess which way the wind is blowing in a particular week could be devastating to a portfolio. The sidelines are the best bet in this environment, but if the sidelines are not for you, focus more on the technicals and less on the headlines.