Friday, June 27, 2008

The Week that Was: The Markets


Many investors and traders are glad this week is safely in the rear view mirror.

After resisting poor economic news and even poorer earnings forecasts, the equity markets finally succumbed to a painful sell off. Following are what the numbers look like (for the week ending June 27): the Dow: down 4.1% to close at 11,346; the S&P 500: down 2.9% to close at 1,278; the Nasdaq: down 3.8% to close at 2,315.

On Friday, money fleeing equities found solace in the treasuries with the 10-year treasury price rising 18/32, or $5.96 per $1,000 face amount, sending its yield down 7 basis points to 3.96%. For the week, the yield was down 20 basis points, the biggest one week decline since February.

Oil and energy prices continue to confound. Oil hit a intraday high of $142.99 before settling at $140.25. Oil is up 45% year-to-date. Cash continues to seek the safety and inflation hedge that gold offers. Gold rose $16.20 to close at $931.30.

Pundits continue to exclaim that we still have not seen the bottom and more pain is coming in the form of increasing oil and energy costs and lower equity values. Particularly vulnerable has been the financial sector. Most of the big name banks and brokerages are testing 52-week lows with "experts" claiming they are still overvalued and further declines are forthcoming. It's hard to argue with them until the market shows some resilience and buyers come in looking for oversold value plays. Most investors and traders will tell you that they will sit on the sidelines until the market shows signs of stabilizing and only then will they wade back into equities. Usually, by the time that happens most have missed very good opportunities.